Afternoon Commentary
No fireworks today as some were looking for in the first full day of trade since the Dubai World news broke. It's still all about the dollar....the dollar was down in early trade and the market was higher, once the dollar started to gain strength the market softened. Same old song and dance. That trend is once again reversing as I write this, ie: dollar falling, market rallying. All in all, not much happening. It would be positive for the bulls to close back above 1100 on the S&P.
Thanksgiving Holiday Summary
Thanksgiving normally gives a very boring, low volume type of trade. On Wednesday morning, it started just that way. The market was drifting higher in early trade, with bond yields drifting higher as well. In the early afternoon however, bondy yields plummeted. If that was domestic trade, the US markets would have normally sold off but they didn't. That meant it was foreign money pouring into bonds, so I set out to try and find out what was going on. Yes, the news regarding Dubai World, the developmental engine of Dubai, had asked creditors for a six
Market Summary Tuesday, November 24th
Ordinarily, following a big upday only giving back 1 point on the S&P would be exactly what you want, especially when the close held above 1100. The S&P futures however closed with a perfect doji (open and close within $.25 of each other, which signals indecision in the market and quite often a change of direction or breakout) which is one of the reasons no new trades were added today as talked about last night.
Market Summary Monday, November 23rd
The market opened big to the upside following big overnight move lower for the dollar. There was some good economic news as well, with existing home sales posting a little better than a 10% gain. There is some confusion however regarding how many of those sales were from investors taking advantage of buying foreclosures and then putting those homes back on the market. Those actually count as "existing" home sales. There is word out of Las Vegas however, that they have more buyers than inventory. It's those type of stories that will eventually cause the hou
Closing Thoughts
Expiration Friday ended with a dull wimper. As mentioned yesterday, the volatility normally associated with expiration Friday, has moved towards Wednesday or Thursday of expiration week. Although closing slightly lower on the day, the market was not able to close back above the 10 day moving average. That's one thing we will be watching on Monday. A consolidation or even a slight pullback here would not necessarily be a negative, however a further sell-off on higher volume would be troublesome for the bulls. The bears are feeling a bit more empowered now t
Morning Trade
The market opened a little lower this morning, following the pullback from Thursday. Many are blaming Dell's poor earnings report after last night's close. A more likely culprit is the dollar. It's still all about the dollar and the dollar was very strong overnight. If you look at a chart of the $DXY, you will see the big spike higher today. Nothing goes straight up or straight down, the dollar included. There has been no fundamental change in monetary policy (ie: the Fed talking about raising rates anytime soon) so it would be a stretch to call this move
Lower Open
The market followed the lead of the futures and opened lower this morning. The economic news of the morning was the jobless claims coming in with a loss of 505,000 which was the expectation. Some were hoping for a drop in the 400,000 range, but that in itself would not account for the lower open. The LEI (leading economic indicators which forecasts expectations 6 months out) showed an increase of .3%, however an increase of .5% was expected. That was a little disappointing and when coupled with a higher dollar may be one of the factors for the low
Market Open
The market opened slightly lower this morning, based on a couple of economic reports. The CPI (this is prices to consumers, whereas the PPI yesterday was at the wholesale level) rose a bit more than expected at .3% when .2% was expected. Obviously not a big increase, however it does follow the higher number on the PPI, meaning that there is just a little inflation building in the pipeline. One thing you watch for is the comparison from the PPI to the CPI. Are wholesalers able to pass on higher prices to consumers? If the answer is yes, that is good for ear
Closing Comments
Today may well go down as a very important day, at least for the next month. The market was able to stay above that important 1100 level today, although it started a bit shaky. In the first half of the day, the market sold off on a rising dollar, however around noon both reversed. The dollar started heading lower and the market started higher. Remember, the last hour of the trading day is always the most important, so to see the market rally into the close is the most important news of the day. There is an old adage (I'm getting older, so I know a lot of "old a
Pre-Market Buzz
The news of the morning was the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which details pricing at the wholesale level. The PPI showed an increase of .3%, which was less than the .5% expected, following a decrease in the PPI last month. On the surface, it would appear that inflation is still not a worry, however if you look deeper in the number there are signs of inflation building in the pipeline. It certainly warrants watching over the nexg couple of months.