Morning Coffee
Here we are again, back at that important 1150 level on the S&P. After breaking above that level last week, it was mentioned in the webinar last week that a test of that breakout was to be expected. That's what is going on at the open this morning. If we can't hold the 1150 level on the close today, you have to pull back on the bullish thesis. Some are quoting some moving average support around 1135, however to stay bullish 1150 is more important in this author's opinion.
Fed Spurs Break Above Resistance
After closing right at that resistance level of 1150 (the previous Jan high) for three consecutive days, the Fed announcement on interest rates provided the needed catalyst to finally break out and close above 1150. The Fed announced that they will continue to keep interest rates at historic lows and here are the all important words, "for an extended period." It appears the market wanted to confirm that the Fed wasn't planning on raising rates in the near future before committing more capital to the buy side. As we have mentioned before, equity markets do not like a c
Do or Die
The market is digesting a better than expected retail sales report as well as a disappointing consumer sentiment number. As we all know, or should know, consumer sentiment is not going to improve until we start adding jobs. The S&P is at an extremely important juncture regarding the near term move. As mentioned in a previous blog, 1150 on the S&P represents a double-top from the January highs. The bears have been saying recently that this is simply a test of the highs and we will fall following this double-top. Maybe. However, if the market can br
Proceed with Caution
Friday's move back above 1120 on the S&P following the better than expected jobs report was indeed impressive. The next level to watch is the previous Jan high at 1150. If the S&P is able to avoid the dreaded double top and break above 1150, 1220 looks to be a strong probability. Let's not get too excited about the Friday jobs report however and realize that regardless of the numbers the government is putting out, the U6 unemployment rate (often called the "real" unemployment rate) actually rose to 16.8%. Therefore, there is a slight nod to the upside potenti