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Afternoon Tea

The market continues to consolidate under 1220, taking another peak at it in yesteday's trade.  The market is soft today and there appear to be too many unknown geo-political issues hanging out there for traders to feel confident going long into the weekend.  The close will be very interesting to see if we get a big down move in the last 30 minutes.  On a side note...we have been watching the Libor rate for years which was the first to signal the big move lower and financial crisis of 2008.  It has recently been inching up again which bears close monitoring.  Look f

Afternoon Tea

The market has rebounded nicely today and appears ready to make a second attempt at breaking above 1220 on the S&P.  The high on the futures as of the time of this writing is 1206, still below the previous high of 1216 set on Monday.  Caution remains until the market breaks above Monday's high.  Another note, the volume is lower today than on the sell-off Tuesday.

Afternoon Tea

The market is just waiting on the Fed today, showing a slight upside bias.  There are no major changes to the Fed statements expected and the action after the announcement will be very interesting.

Morning Coffee

Today's market action is important in whether yesterday was simply a profit taking session, or the start of something more bearish.  The excuse the pundits are using for yesterday's sell-off was the downgrade of Portugal's debt rating, raising fears that Greece's problems may be spreading throughout the EU.  We all know that the market hit major resistance at 1220 and whatever the news of the day was would have been blamed for the sell-off.  The market will tell us.  Following a big volume sell-off as we experienced yesterday, needs to be reversed on equal volume if the

Morning Coffee

The S&P is still treading water just underneath 1220 in morning trade.  Caterpillar (CAT) reported much better than expected earnings as well as raising guideance for the balance of the year, turning the futures from negative to positive prior to the market open.  The first couple of trading days this week should tell us a lot about where the market goes over the next few months.

Change of Character?

Following the reversal on Friday, we will be watching closely the market action on Monday.  Was Friday an isolated event based on the curious timing of the Goldman Sachs news?  Or after reaching the 1220 level that we have been watching for so long, is the market in for a change of direction?  There is still talk on the street of a tremendous amount of money on the sidelines waiting for a pullback to move in.  That's why Monday's action will tell us a lot.  We have a couple of great looking Strangles setting up that we will enter at the right time.  It is still

Afternoon Tea

The rally continues into the afternoon following the blow-out earnings reports from Intel (INTC) and JP Morgan (JPM) after the close yesterday.  As mentioned in yesterday's blog, the market shook off the lackluster earnings report from Alcoa (AA) and is showing a far more positive stance on Wednesday.  Lot's of Fed Speak on Wednesday as Bernanke gave commentary that the economic recovery is modest, won't be enough to create new jobs and likely will stay modest until we (as a country) do something policy wise to actually create jobs.  In addition, the Beige Book survey was rel

Afternoon Tea

The early malaise in the market has been erased with a modest rally into the afternoon.  As mentioned in the morning blog, the market is waiting for more definitive earnings reports before the next directional move will be decided.  GOOG reports on Thursday which will obviously be watched very closely.

Morning Coffee

The earnings season got off to a negative start with Alcoa (AA) reporting its usual, a disappointing report.  Alcoa is famous for missing its earnings forecasts and is a master at creating excuses as to why.  It makes you wonder why shareholders don't demand a management change.  Therefore, traders don't really pay much attention to Alcoa as they are quite often the exception rather than the norm.  After a flat open, a spike in the dollar created a downward spike in the market.  It would be hard to imagine too much volatility in the market until we see more earnings

Afternoon Tea

Quite a boring day in the markets today waiting on earnings.  Alcoa (AA) starts things off today following the close.  Many fee the coming earnings reports will determine the near term movement in the market.  The slightly bullish tone to this point is leftover from the weekend news that a loan agreement will be made available to Greece.  Other than that, not much news to report.